Lang Xianping: China's LCD panel industry will repeat the mistakes of photovoltaic

The days when domestic color TV manufacturers have been "smashed their necks" by panel makers have been around for a long time.

"They said how they would go up," the industry insiders said bluntly. "If you don't accept it, they will stop supplying. The memo signed before is useless." His color TV company had signed a large contract with a panel manufacturer at the beginning of the year. As a result, in the middle of the year, panel makers directly changed the contract and raised the unit price by $5.

8e countries, Europe and the United States successively issued a fine of 1.215 billion US dollars and 648 million euros to Korean brands Samsung, LG, and Taiwan's Taiwan Chi Mei, AUO, CPT, and HannStar Crystal LCD panel manufacturers, the National Development and Reform Commission At the beginning of 2013, the “first shot” of panel anti-monopoly was finally launched. It was determined that between 2001 and 2006, the above six LCD panel manufacturers had a total of 53 “price alliances”, which were suspected of price monopoly. The "price tiger" was punished by RMB 353 million.

"China has officially joined the anti-monopoly of LCD panels, which is undoubtedly a major positive for the domestic panel industry and color TV manufacturers," some analysts believe. But others have expressed different, even pessimistic views. "The development of the panel industry can be done not by anti-monopoly, but by technological breakthroughs and productivity enhancements." Lu Jianbo, deputy secretary general of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, told reporters that "the domestic panel industry is just getting started." The company has just completed the basic investment. However, the lack of strategic forward-looking reasons leads to a weak self-innovation capability, which in turn leads to a vicious circle of weak profitability.

Questioned "swallowing beast"


Due to the lack of core and low screen on the core components of domestic color TV enterprises, the international competitiveness is greatly reduced, but the investment in panel projects is huge and the cycle is long. Domestic color TV enterprises have rarely tried.

However, in recent years, with the rise of companies such as BOE and TCL, the domestic panel industry has finally broken the long-term monopoly of international brands such as Samsung and LG. According to the statistics of the China Optical Optoelectronics Industry Association, there are 8 production lines below the 4.5th generation line in China, 8 production lines in the 5th to 8th generation lines, and 8 in construction and proposed, 24 in total. According to relevant data, China's panel companies have risen to less than 1% in global share in 2005 from less than 1%. It is estimated that China's panel companies will reach 20% of the global market share in 2015.

Liang Xinqing, secretary-general of the China Optical Optoelectronics Industry Association LCD Branch, said that the speed of the development of the domestic panel industry depends on the following factors: At present, the output of all kinds of domestically processed complete machines such as TVs, monitors, notebooks and mobile phones has accounted for more than 50% of the world. The upstream pulling action is obvious; the local government actively promotes and successively invests in Beijing, Hefei, Kunshan, Nanjing, Shenzhen and other regions; the national policy is tilted, for example, in April 2012, the state issued a 32-inch or more panel import tariff increase of 5 % and other policies.

However, the domestic tens of billions of investment in panel companies is in stark contrast to their weak profitability. Taking BOE as an example, its accumulated losses in the ten years of listing exceeded 7 billion yuan. In 2011, it invested 22 billion yuan in Erdos to build AM-OLED 5.5 generation line. At the end of 2012, it laid out the 8.5th generation of new semiconductor display devices and systems in Chongqing. The total investment of the project is as high as 32.8 billion yuan, and the company expects to be profitable in 2012, but the net profit is only 50 million to 100 million yuan.

Economist Lang Xianping recently "fired" the mainland LCD panel industry through Weibo, saying that China's LCD panel industry is developing like the photovoltaic industry two years ago in a big leap forward, and the result of the Great Leap Forward will inevitably lead to serious overcapacity. Even more frightening is the development of a new generation of organic liquid crystal panels (OLEDs) by Samsung. Once the new panel is launched, China's hundreds of billions of LCD panel industry will repeat the same mistakes as photovoltaics.

"Being able to do is not equal to being able to do well," Lu Jianbo told reporters. "China's panel industry has not yet formed a scale. There is still a long way to go with international panel companies in technological innovation. It can be said that only the ability to introduce is now available. But the ability to improve digestion is still weak."

More analysts have clearly pointed out that the timing of the birth of China's panel industry is "too delicate". When Samsung, LG, Sharp, Sony and other international brands began to force OLED, our LCD panel is just getting started, even if it is profitable in the short term. That is also because competitors take the initiative to give up this market because they are fully prepared for future investment in technology and products. By then, the OLED era will accelerate, and domestic panel companies will be in danger, repeating the mistakes of current LCD technology to replace CRT technology. And the investment of 100 billion has not been recovered, and it has become a pile of scrap copper.

Spring is not cold in winter

However, in response to the question of “investment backwardness”, BOE Chairman Wang Dongsheng said that from TFT-LCD to AMOLED is the extension and development of technology, and their technical relevance and resource sharing are as high as 70%. At the same time, as BOYO's multiple LCD production lines enter full production and full sales, the scale effect is gradually reflected. "It will not take long for BOE to throw away the loss of the hat and enter the harvest period."

"OLEDs replace LEDs and LCDs are the trend of the times", and home appliance observer Luo Qingqi said, "Now is not a question of when the wolf comes. The wolf has come early. Japan and South Korea's panel makers have clearly laid out OLEDs many years ago. It is very likely that the spring has not yet been manufactured. Come, the winter of the market is here."

In the global consumer technology wind vane, the US Consumer Electronics Show (CES), this year, regardless of Samsung, LG, or Sony, Sharp and other companies without exception, OLED as the highlight of its participating products.

"If the giants work together on OLEDs, then the OLED era will come soon," analysts said. "At the beginning, LCD replaced the picture tube technology from about 2002 to 2009, and it took about seven years, and this round of technology and product innovation. The replacement cycle will be shorter and it will probably not be used for five years."

As a relatively backward technology and product, LCD panels are bound to be gradually replaced by OLEDs. Although there will still be a transition period, there will still be some market demand, but it is still in a down cycle, and price cuts are inevitable.

“The time left for the market to pant is less than two years,” said the person in charge of Huaxing Optoelectronics under TCL.

“What our panel companies can do now is to quantify production as soon as possible and to grasp the current market opportunities,” Lu said. “If you can’t achieve breakthroughs in key technologies and independent innovation, do Without a more competitive product, the real profitability of the company must be nowhere in sight."

(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)

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